Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ee1…a5ef crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$343 (-6%) realized −$349 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%69W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$23
other 19% +$26
world 16% −$42
politics 11% +$2
sports 10% −$357
economics 2% +$4
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.5% -4.6% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 2 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 0% -4.7%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 92% 0% -10.2%
all 79 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 1% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -15.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -23.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -31.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$52 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses69 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage578d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $53 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $34 +$1 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $60 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $190 +$3 +2%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 12 $142 +$6 +4%
R2 FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 06 $31 +$2 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 06 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 06 $161 +$1 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $191 +$1 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Mar 30 $84 −$36 -43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 22 $102 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 25? Mar 07 $100 $0 +0%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $129 +$6 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 11? Feb 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8? Feb 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $170 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 07 $76 +$1 +1%
Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30 Dec 10 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 10 $102 +$1 +0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Nov 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 09 $172 $0 +0%
Yieldbasis FDV above $3B one day after launch? Oct 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $54 $0 +1%
Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? Oct 04 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom launch a token in September? Oct 04 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 05 $110 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 05 $55 +$4 +6%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Aug 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 10 $50 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 01 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $34 2h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $6 33d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $106 33d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $48 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 33d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 45d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $190 66d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $149 67d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $40 69d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $142 69d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 99¢ $60 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $161 80d
R2 FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $24 80d
R2 FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $7 80d
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $48 81d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 81d
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? BUY No 99¢ $102 93d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $100 103d
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $88 116d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 116d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $135 116d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $52 128d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $129 133d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8? BUY No 96¢ $50 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.47 · official $268.45 (match) · 424 history records