Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3edb…aa1e
weather · 791 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,851 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$134 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,511
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses623 / 130
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions38
Markets (closed)753 / 791
History coverage64d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 38 History 753 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$39
14 days−$50
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 87¢ 81¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 82¢ 66¢ $55 $44 −$11 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 94¢ 97¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 87¢ 91¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 89¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 83¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 67°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$71
crypto 3% −$18
sports 1% −$26
other 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -2.7% -12.0% 94% 13% -10.0%
≤30d 250 +4.5% -5.4% 94% 12% -10.9%
≤90d 753 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 37% -10.4%
all 753 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 37% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 37% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 17% -18.9%
15% -24.7% 7% -26.8%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,510.76 · official $1,510.76 (match) · 3500 history records