Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ed9…de71 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (349 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+6%) realized +$83 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%67W / 66L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day348.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$325
other 3% −$35
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (349 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% +3.0%
≤30d 133 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% +3.0%
≤90d 133 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% +3.0%
all 133 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover348.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 44% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 39% -6.8%
15% -33.2% 29% -15.8%
20% -39.8% 23% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses67 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day348.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 40¢ 50¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 16¢ 50¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+216%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 16¢ 50¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+209%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$25 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$54 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$54 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$54 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$21 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$28 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$27 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$17 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$25 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$19 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$5 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $67 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.30 · official $119.30 (match) · 446 history records