Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3ed7…d256 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$45 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$59
14 days−$92
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$126
sports 21% +$83
finance 6% −$19
crypto 5% +$59
world 3% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.6% +1.0% 57% 52% -12.5%
≤30d 29 +8.7% -1.6% 52% 48% -10.2%
≤90d 29 +8.7% -1.6% 52% 48% -10.2%
all 29 +8.7% -1.6% 52% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 48% -10.2%
10% -11.0% 41% -18.8%
15% -19.6% 34% -26.7%
20% -27.5% 24% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage25d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ $42 $20 −$22 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$27 +323%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$61 -83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$93 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$65 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 +$68 +91%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $214 −$157 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$62 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$59 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 +$15 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$50 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$23 +75%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 +$5 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $103 −$19 -18%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $75 −$13 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 06 $36 −$1 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $111 +$23 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $44 +$46 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $48 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $36 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $134 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $47 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $37 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $103 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $143 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $56 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.31 · official $20.31 (match) · 73 history records