Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3ed5…9472 other 5 markets active 166d ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1984% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1505% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1505%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 80% +$1,251
other 14% +$837
economics 4% +$66
sports 2% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+1785.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 +1984.2% +1785.7% 100% 100% +1789.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1785.7% 100% +1789.5%
10% ← realistic here +1605.3% 100% +1608.7%
15% +1440.5% 100% +1443.6%
20% +1289.5% 100% +1292.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1984% · $-wt +4877% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$491 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $33 +$1,109 +3389%
Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Nov 29 $1 +$301 +27390%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 22 $7 +$837 +11525%
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 22 $7 +$142 +1921%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Nov 20 $2 +$66 +3556%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 165d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 165d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 165d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 165d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 165d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 165d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1229 history records