Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ecf…86bc crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$49 (+28%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$3
other 7% −$9
crypto 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 38% -16.0%
≤30d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 38% -16.0%
≤90d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 38% -16.0%
all 8 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 38% -16.0%
10% -47.4% 25% -24.0%
15% -52.5% 25% -31.3%
20% -57.2% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 53¢ $10 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 13h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records