Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ecf…34c0 politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 19% $0
politics 18% +$2
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 31 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage447d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $27 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $30 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $31 25d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 182d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 354d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 378d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 392d
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the BUY Yes 91¢ $7 398d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $8 398d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $8 400d
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? SELL No 93¢ $7 402d
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? BUY No 93¢ $7 402d
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect SELL Yes 82¢ $7 403d
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect BUY Yes 85¢ $8 403d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.22 · official $4.22 (match) · 67 history records