Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ecd…5aba world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$18
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$8
economics 15% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 10% −$9
politics 4% +$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 11% -5.4%
≤30d 33 -2.8% -12.1% 36% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 45 -1.9% -11.3% 38% 4% -9.1%
all 47 -6.1% -15.1% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -30.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage519d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $54 +$20 +36%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $68 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $119 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $115 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $65 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $87 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $38 −$7 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $45 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $34 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $230 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $122 +$2 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $229 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $229 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $233 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $177 $0 +0%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 41h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $52 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $13 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $59 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $59 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 52¢ $60 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $40 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.49 · official $50.84 (match) · 195 history records