Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3ec8…36f4 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$367 (+42%) realized +$377 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days+$275
14 days+$542
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$92
sports 41% +$493
crypto 5% −$30
politics 2% −$14
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.3% -15.2% 19% 19% +36.2%
≤30d 41 +37.8% +24.7% 29% 29% +53.3%
≤90d 41 +37.8% +24.7% 29% 29% +53.3%
all 41 +37.8% +24.7% 29% 29% +53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.7% 29% +53.3%
10% +12.8% 27% +38.6%
15% +1.9% 27% +25.2%
20% -8.1% 27% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +154% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$14 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rúben Neves: 1+ assists Yes 16¢ 8¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 $0 -0%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ assists Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Junya Itō: 1+ assists Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $19 +$51 +262%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $21 +$113 +549%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$120 +599%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $69 +$281 +406%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 +$4 +14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$36 +200%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$28 +95%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$32 +234%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a d Jun 15 $15 +$193 +1251%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $12 +$15 +124%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 +$7 +122%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $16 −$14 -87%
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $20 +$76 +378%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 55m
Rúben Neves: 1+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 2h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY 9¢ $21 26h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $20 44h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $14 44h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $20 44h
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $7 45h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 47h
Junya Itō: 1+ assists SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL Kia Tigers 100¢ $70 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY Kia Tigers 27¢ $19 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 2d
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 2d
Junya Itō: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Junya Itō: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $20 2d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 99¢ $305 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 10¢ $10 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 25¢ $20 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 4¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.59 · official $8.59 (match) · 110 history records