Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3ec3…e330 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,285 (+16%) realized +$3,297 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 50L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$70
14 days−$62
30 days+$1,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,869
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.0% +0.4% 56% 56% -12.9%
≤30d 88 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 52% +0.2%
≤90d 109 +6.5% -3.6% 54% 52% +3.5%
all 109 +6.5% -3.6% 54% 52% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 52% +3.5%
10% -12.8% 50% -6.4%
15% -21.2% 47% -15.4%
20% -29.0% 41% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$117 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$3,297
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage40d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Zakharova Anastasia Zakharova 63¢ 42¢ $37 $24 −$12 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $460 −$424 -92%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $281 +$182 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $184 +$99 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $99 +$85 +86%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2 +$1 +79%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $8 +$6 +82%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $3 +$5 +158%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $188 −$185 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $286 −$90 -32%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 +$16 +158%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $149 +$114 +77%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $89 +$62 +70%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $70 +$84 +120%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $32 +$32 +98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $17 +$12 +74%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $79 +$35 +44%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $113 −$112 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $49 +$31 +63%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $24 −$23 -98%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $147 −$144 -98%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $161 −$10 -6%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $99 +$64 +65%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $88 −$87 -99%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 04 $151 +$92 +61%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $90 −$87 -96%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 01 $207 −$203 -98%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 01 $249 −$38 -15%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $70 −$51 -73%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $338 −$265 -78%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5) May 31 $139 +$92 +66%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $112 +$109 +98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $194 −$189 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $389 +$103 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $154 +$141 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia BUY Anastasia Zakharova 58¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia BUY Anastasia Zakharova 63¢ $35 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova $36 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 61¢ $12 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 61¢ $448 7h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $33 9h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $248 9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $2 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $4 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $7 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $7 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $13 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $65 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $39 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $37 12h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $2 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $97 15h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 26¢ $1 37h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 49¢ $5 44h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $3 44h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 55¢ $2 44h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 41¢ $13 4d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 100¢ $14 4d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 54¢ $8 4d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 38¢ $3 4d
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 37¢ $5 4d
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 37¢ $63 4d
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 37¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.50 · official $24.50 (match) · 360 history records