Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3ec2…4035
crypto · 477 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,602 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,439 · open −$163
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,439
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses219 / 257
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)476 / 477
History coverage123d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 476 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$126
14 days+$126
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$86 +171%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$66 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 21 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 17 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 17 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $13 +$32 +240%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $69 +$15 +22%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw? Mar 31 $53 +$20 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $33 +$22 +65%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $37 −$23 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 31 $13 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 31 $6 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$3 -65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $19 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 28 $8 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 28 $33 −$17 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 28 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 28 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 28 $19 +$16 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 28 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $40 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 28 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 28 $69 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 28 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 28 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 28 $12 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 27 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 27 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 27 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$1,285
other 5% −$289
sports 2% −$17
finance 0% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $15 57m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $75 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 8¢ $5 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 6¢ $8 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $44 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $48 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $37 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $39 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 27d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 28d
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.9% +21.2% 50% 50% +89.8%
≤30d 14 +10.0% -0.5% 57% 29% +27.3%
≤90d 251 -14.4% -22.6% 48% 31% -15.4%
all 476 -19.9% -27.6% 46% 31% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 31% -21.4%
10% -34.5% 19% -28.9%
15% -40.8% 15% -35.8%
20% -46.6% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 2451 history records