Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3ec2…dba9 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% $0
politics 19% +$4
crypto 19% $0
other 16% −$6
tech 9% +$4
sports 5% +$9
finance 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +57.8% +42.8% 80% 20% -7.4%
≤30d 10 +29.2% +16.9% 90% 10% -8.3%
≤90d 16 +18.9% +7.6% 88% 6% -8.3%
all 94 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage536d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 24 $81 $0 +1%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 23 $119 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$9 +388%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $118 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $118 +$5 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 09 $227 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 19 $117 +$2 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 08 $113 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 30 $67 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 19 $113 $0 +0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close Mar 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 02 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $98 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $207 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 24 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 19 $54 $0 -0%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Jan 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 19 $54 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 11 $54 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jan 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jan 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? Jan 04 $54 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 15-21? Dec 25 $54 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Dec 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Dec 16 $54 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Dec 01 $71 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 22 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? Nov 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Nov 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 07 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $82 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 21h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 21h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $81 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $119 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $119 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $104 13d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 13d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 17d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $118 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $5 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $58 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $11 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $45 22d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $124 36d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $123 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 266 history records