Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3ec2…acf3 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$126 (+37%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$29
other 36% +$124
crypto 9% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +46.8% +32.8% 50% 50% +23.6%
≤30d 14 +46.8% +32.8% 50% 50% +23.6%
≤90d 14 +46.8% +32.8% 50% 50% +23.6%
all 14 +46.8% +32.8% 50% 50% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.8% 50% +23.6%
10% +20.1% 50% +11.8%
15% +8.5% 50% +1.0%
20% -2.1% 43% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 +$28 +41%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$43 +324%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$23 +105%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$50 +307%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $67 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $31 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $78 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $26 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 29h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $26 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $67 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records