Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3ec1…57f2 crypto 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,808 (+12%) realized +$4,808 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%74W / 91L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$299
14 days+$299
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,059
sports 1% −$38
other 1% +$1
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 50% +11.8%
≤30d 12 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 50% +11.8%
≤90d 164 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 40% -0.7%
all 165 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 41% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -0.6%
10% -17.9% 36% -10.2%
15% -25.8% 26% -18.8%
20% -33.1% 21% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$92 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,808
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses74 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage429d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$65 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $258 +$188 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $258 +$192 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$25 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1,917 +$731 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $1,606 +$1,442 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 13 $871 −$547 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $96 +$55 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 13 $352 +$107 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $378 +$163 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 13 $132 +$105 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 13 $40 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 13 $76 +$71 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 13 $159 −$157 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 13 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 13 $309 +$235 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $1,165 −$983 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 13 $178 −$157 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $2 +$12 +494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 13 $195 +$48 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $180 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 13 $15 −$15 -99%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 12 $132 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 12 $82 +$59 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 12 $21 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 12 $60 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 12 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 12 $22 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $1,034 +$906 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 12 $5,148 +$804 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 12 $1,026 +$577 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $1,566 −$1,046 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 12 $1,031 −$847 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 12 $1,040 +$375 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 12 $1,041 +$795 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 12 $2,073 +$1,144 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $125 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $54 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 79¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $178 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $18 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $35 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $17 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $17 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $39 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $17 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1209 history records