Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ec0…a64a weather 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%65W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$76
14 days−$75
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.2% -25.1% 55% 55% -24.9%
≤30d 79 -1.1% -10.6% 61% 61% -9.0%
≤90d 101 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 64% -9.6%
all 101 +0.8% -8.8% 64% 64% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 64% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 63% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 13% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses65 / 36
Open positions7
Markets (closed)101 / 108
History coverage42d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 74¢ 86¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? No 76¢ 86¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? No 76¢ 83¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25? No 79¢ 80¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? No 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? No 75¢ 74¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 78¢ 66¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $41 +$14 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $41 +$13 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 23 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 22 $41 −$20 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$10 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $41 +$13 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$6 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $41 −$17 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $40 +$14 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $41 +$20 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$25 -63%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $40 +$12 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$11 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $37 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$21 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $41 −$24 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $41 +$19 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $41 +$17 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $41 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 +$15 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $46 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$8 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $94 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $41 +$21 +50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $60 +$40 +68%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $40 +$12 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $40 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$39 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 08 $40 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 08 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $41 +$23 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $41 +$22 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $40 −$36 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $40 −$7 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $41 +$19 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $41 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $40 +$13 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $40 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $40 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $41 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? SELL No 39¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 61¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $40 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $41 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $26 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 45¢ $24 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.96 · official $287.96 (match) · 353 history records