Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ebc…1a37 sports 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$23
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 45% -32.4%
≤30d 30 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 63% -10.4%
≤90d 30 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 63% -10.4%
all 30 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 63% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 63% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 57% -19.0%
15% -27.2% 37% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$6 +54%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$12 +78%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$4 +84%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$3 +49%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 +$4 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $5 +$3 +53%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 61¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 77¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $13 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 55¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 83¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 83¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 78¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 83¢ $7 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 57¢ $5 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 57¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 54¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 54¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 94¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 58¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL BIG 99¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records