Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eb7…9ea6 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%32W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$6
other 10% −$1
finance 2% −$5
crypto 2% +$1
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% +$11
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 30% 10% -7.9%
≤30d 26 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 8% -9.7%
all 71 -2.8% -12.1% 45% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses32 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage475d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $377 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $152 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $148 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $139 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $146 +$36 +24%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $108 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $335 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $428 −$6 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $173 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $331 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $105 +$5 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $129 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $207 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $207 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $145 −$5 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,118 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $10 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $97 +$10 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $96 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $159 −$54 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $147 +$2 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 10 $25 $0 -1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $140 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $140 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $130 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $139 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $153 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $152 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $86 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $148 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $73 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $47 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $87 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $148 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $148 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $89 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $120 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $139 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $73 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records