Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3eb3…7133
crypto · 307 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$31 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open −$194
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$578
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses146 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)261 / 307
History coverage124d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 46 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$150
14 days+$116
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $66 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-14%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 51¢ 19¢ $102 $38 −$64 (-63%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 77¢ 100¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $35 $31 −$3 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 79¢ 100¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+26%)
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ 51¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+156%)
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ 50¢ $6 $25 +$18 (+281%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Curaçao 82¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Curaçao 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 92¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 98¢ 84¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+588%)
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+104%)
Obama arrested before 2027? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$6 +90%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $28 −$6 -20%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 12 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 07 $17 +$33 +190%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $19 +$85 +438%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $0 +$6 +4900%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $15 +$35 +233%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $6 +$44 +669%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $92 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$85
crypto 35% −$7
economics 9% −$19
sports 4% +$4
culture 2% −$29
politics 1% −$38
world 0% +$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 4h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $6 4h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $4 5h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $4 5h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $10 5h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $2 5h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 5h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 6h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 6h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 14h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 15h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +91.5% +73.3% 76% 31% +45.5%
≤30d 245 -10.4% -19.0% 57% 31% -3.5%
≤90d 254 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 30% -8.9%
all 261 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 30% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 30% -8.9%
10% -28.0% 19% -17.6%
15% -34.9% 15% -25.6%
20% -41.3% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.46 · official $577.33 (match) · 956 history records