Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eac…67cb sports 404 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$449 (-2%) realized −$564 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%181W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$133
14 days−$210
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$68
other 6% −$421
world 0% −$78
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 61 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 36% -14.0%
≤90d 179 -18.0% -25.8% 45% 42% -13.3%
all 398 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 42% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -11.2%
10% -23.5% 38% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 34% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$48 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$564
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses181 / 217
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)398 / 404
History coverage219d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 50¢ 74¢ $245 $360 +$115 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $249 +$153 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $47 −$40 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 −$61 -58%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $188 +$112 +60%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $50 +$26 +52%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $80 +$34 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$22 +45%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $99 −$39 -39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$78 -78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$48 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $454 +$47 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $45 +$51 +114%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $55 +$204 +369%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$99 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $49 −$49 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$22 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $149 +$62 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $60 +$30 +51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $40 −$14 -36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $400 −$176 -44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $86 +$26 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $122 +$28 +23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $266 +$217 +82%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 +$46 +92%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $101 +$60 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $159 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $118 −$41 -35%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $248 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $402 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $249 7h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $7 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 23¢ $45 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $47 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 53¢ $53 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 53¢ $53 22h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $188 31h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND S BUY 7¢ $5 39h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 65¢ $50 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 6¢ $6 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Ir BUY 2¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $114 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $80 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $50 6d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 28¢ $60 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $99 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Ghana v BUY 15¢ $36 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $7 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $22 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 3¢ $5 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.76 · official $364.66 · 965 history records