Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3eac…cf8e other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%52W / 54L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$62
other 8% +$8
crypto 2% +$1
politics 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 27 +8.5% -1.8% 41% 19% -9.8%
≤90d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 34% 16% -10.0%
all 106 +1.6% -8.0% 49% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -9.9%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses52 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage468d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $278 +$9 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $139 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $130 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $509 −$29 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $169 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,206 −$7 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $78 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $171 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $279 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $234 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $423 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $298 −$30 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $207 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$9 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $112 +$31 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 −$3 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $57 −$4 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1,029 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $936 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $96 −$28 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $997 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $3 $0 -10%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 31 $5 $0 -7%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score May 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 22 $6 −$1 -8%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $153 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $153 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $83 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $55 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $138 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $102 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $139 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $78 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $61 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $139 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $129 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $79 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $81 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $117 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $106 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.10 (match) · 348 history records