Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3ea9…e3c7 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,123 (-1%) realized −$1,124 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,322per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,795
politics 38% −$70
sports 10% +$718
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 3% -10.6%
all 129 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 14% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 14% -10.1%
10% -18.3% 14% -18.7%
15% -26.2% 13% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,677) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$26 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$1,124
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,322
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $287 $288 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $749 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $655 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,264 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $652 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,637 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,084 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $891 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $742 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $5,032 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $68 +$66 +97%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,946 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,407 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,068 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,267 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $83 $0 +0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $45 +$34 +76%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,738 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $4,069 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2,359 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $1,452 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,449 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $2,240 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3,270 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $6,752 −$6 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,789 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $6,639 −$7 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 4h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $651 4h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $652 7h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $654 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $655 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $653 29h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $654 31h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $683 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $684 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $724 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $725 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $586 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $587 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $630 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $631 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $645 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $646 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $657 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $658 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $287 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $955 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $756 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $757 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $706 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.69 · official $287.69 (match) · 453 history records