Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3ea8…c944 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$27
other 18% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.0% -0.5% 100% 0% -0.5%
≤30d 3 -18.9% -26.6% 67% 33% -17.5%
≤90d 3 -18.9% -26.6% 67% 33% -17.5%
all 3 -18.9% -26.6% 67% 33% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 33% -17.5%
10% -33.6% 33% -25.4%
15% -40.0% 0% -32.6%
20% -45.9% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$44 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 22 $92 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 13 $53 +$18 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 1h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $101 1h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 3h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $71 9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.20 · official $52.20 (match) · 10 history records