Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3ea7…63ed crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$252 (+39%) realized +$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +110.7% +90.6% 53% 53% +1.4%
≤30d 42 +49.4% +35.2% 48% 48% +2.0%
≤90d 42 +49.4% +35.2% 48% 48% +2.0%
all 42 +49.4% +35.2% 48% 48% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.2% 48% +2.0%
10% +22.2% 48% -7.8%
15% +10.4% 43% -16.7%
20% -0.4% 38% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage19d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$20 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$94 +1456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$45 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$37 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$14 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $227 +$60 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$9 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $33 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $80 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records