Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3ea4…f403 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$155 (-22%) realized −$139 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%18W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$162
14 days−$159
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$104
other 27% −$3
politics 11% −$47
crypto 8% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -42.2% -47.7% 20% 18% -38.2%
≤30d 78 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 22% -36.1%
≤90d 78 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 22% -36.1%
all 78 -31.0% -37.6% 23% 22% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 22% -36.1%
10% -43.5% 17% -42.2%
15% -49.0% 14% -47.8%
20% -54.0% 12% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses18 / 60
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)78 / 88
History coverage18d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? No 11¢ 9¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 55¢ 32¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 57¢ 38¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week? Yes 43¢ 39¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? No 12¢ 34¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+183%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +116%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -85%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -22%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $18 $0 -3%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $39 −$18 -47%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$54 +522%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $28 −$8 -29%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 09 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Chris Rock attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jimmy Fallon attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 52m
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 15h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 15h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 23h
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 12¢ $2 23h
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 23h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 23h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 23h
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.50 · official $91.50 (match) · 159 history records