Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

3E 0x3ea3…cf06 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$2 (+11%) realized +$8 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+20.6%	+9.1%	67%	67%	+20.4%
≤30d	3	+20.6%	+9.1%	67%	67%	+20.4%
≤90d	3	+20.6%	+9.1%	67%	67%	+20.4%
all	3	+20.6%	+9.1%	67%	67%	+20.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.1%	67%	+20.4%
10%	-1.4%	67%	+8.9%
15%	-10.9%	67%	-1.6%
20%	-19.6%	67%	-11.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	7¢	2¢	$3	$1	−$2 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	2¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	6¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	22¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Up	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$1	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$9	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 15 history records