Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9f…3988 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$646 (-2%) realized −$646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%33W / 12L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$913per market
Trades / day229.7pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$211
other 31% −$1,871
crypto 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 73% 38% -12.8%
≤30d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 73% 38% -12.8%
≤90d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 73% 38% -12.8%
all 45 +8.1% -2.2% 73% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 38% -12.8%
10% -11.6% 20% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -20.1% 13% -28.8%
20% -28.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,183) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$364 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses33 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$913
Trades / day229.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $242 +$8 +3%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $3 +$22 +785%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 26 $967 +$68 +7%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $9 +$2 +27%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $3,381 +$382 +11%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $565 +$28 +5%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,707 +$43 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,147 +$98 +4%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $368 +$99 +27%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,174 +$375 +32%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $96 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $83 +$8 +9%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $395 +$22 +6%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $4,827 +$123 +3%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $479 +$45 +9%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,203 +$73 +6%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $2,410 +$319 +13%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $1,970 −$1,023 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,931 −$1,226 -42%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $1,484 −$1,458 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $233 −$127 -55%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2,674 +$76 +3%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $336 −$331 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $40 −$32 -81%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $39 +$26 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $44 +$5 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $28 +$31 +108%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $396 +$39 +10%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $58 +$10 +16%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $85 +$13 +15%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $386 −$127 -33%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,183 +$144 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $714 +$21 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $61 +$7 +11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $6,339 +$493 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,788 +$85 +5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $61 +$26 +43%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $22 +$8 +39%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 33m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $173 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $329 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $441 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $65 33m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $289 34m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,416 34m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 96¢ $189 36m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $8 37m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 95¢ $140 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $177 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $177 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $266 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $89 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $89 40m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $266 40m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 90¢ $66 41m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $90 44m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 60¢ $44 46m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY No 47¢ $12 48m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 49m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $285 49m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $953 49m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,430 49m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 50m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 50m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 50m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $214 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records