Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e9f…c3db crypto 307 markets active 4d ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-2%) realized −$100 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%103W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$144
14 days−$193
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$212
other 8% +$16
sports 0% −$27
politics 0% +$8
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -48.2% -53.1% 16% 16% -57.0%
≤30d 57 -24.7% -31.8% 23% 23% -30.9%
≤90d 91 -31.1% -37.6% 27% 26% -36.9%
all 303 -15.4% -23.5% 34% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 29% -12.2%
10% -30.8% 23% -20.6%
15% -37.5% 19% -28.3%
20% -43.6% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses103 / 200
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)303 / 307
History coverage142d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$17 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$7 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$17 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $33 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$33 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$12 +189%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.54 · official $36.54 (match) · 1047 history records