Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9e…1f45 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-19%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%39W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$2
sports 32% −$21
other 17% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -16.9% -24.8% 60% 49% -29.1%
≤30d 65 -16.9% -24.8% 60% 49% -29.1%
≤90d 65 -16.9% -24.8% 60% 49% -29.1%
all 65 -16.9% -24.8% 60% 49% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 49% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 34% -35.9%
15% -38.6% 18% -42.1%
20% -44.6% 9% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses39 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$7 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records