Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e9b…5ba4 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$427 (-41%) realized −$394 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$77
14 days−$42
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$310
world 18% −$194
sports 11% +$230
crypto 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.6% -33.6% 22% 22% -29.7%
≤30d 14 -16.1% -24.1% 29% 29% -22.9%
≤90d 14 -16.1% -24.1% 29% 29% -22.9%
all 19 -34.2% -40.4% 21% 21% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 21% -40.9%
10% -46.1% 21% -46.5%
15% -51.3% 21% -51.7%
20% -56.1% 21% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$42 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$394
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage166d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $37 +$149 +397%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$111 +218%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 09 $19 −$19 -100%
China coup attempt before 2027? Feb 09 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $186 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 11h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 0¢ $1 11h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 0¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 8d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 11¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $162 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 5¢ $51 10d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 15d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 134d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 134d
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 151d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 164d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 165d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 165d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 166d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.87 · official $166.87 (match) · 44 history records