Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3E 0x3e9a…8e70 tech 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$30 (+10%) realized +$30 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-3.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+6.9%	-3.3%	67%	33%	-3.3%
≤30d	3	+6.9%	-3.3%	67%	33%	-3.3%
≤90d	3	+6.9%	-3.3%	67%	33%	-3.3%
all	3	+6.9%	-3.3%	67%	33%	-3.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.3%	33%	-3.3%
10%	-12.6%	0%	-12.6%
15%	-21.0%	0%	-21.0%
20%	-28.8%	0%	-28.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$2 · ×7.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.15 per $1 lost it wins $14.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$30

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage36d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	Jun 22	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Jun 22	$100	−$2	-2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Jun 22	$100	+$12	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	SELL Yes	99¢	$110	1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL Yes	60¢	$98	1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	SELL Yes	66¢	$112	1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	59¢	$100	8d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	56¢	$100	13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records