Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e98…5389
other · 44 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$153 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$43
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 8 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 54¢ 70¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? No 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia Italy 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 23¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $60 +$11 +19%
AI bubble burst in 2026? May 03 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $48 +$5 +11%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 17 $3 +$1 +45%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 15 $30 −$18 -62%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Feb 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Italy Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" this week? (February 8) Feb 09 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8) Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Armada" this week? (February 8) Feb 07 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5? Feb 06 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 05 $10 +$28 +284%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$102
tech 25% +$20
crypto 23% −$35
politics 4% −$10
culture 3% −$9
world 2% −$11
economics 2% −$10
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 40d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 40d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 47d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 12¢ $1 106d
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly SELL Yes 5¢ $12 117d
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden SELL Finland 52¢ $6 118d
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia BUY Italy 10¢ $1 118d
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden BUY Finland 40¢ $5 118d
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Italy BUY Italy 2¢ $1 120d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 23¢ $20 123d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 23¢ $10 123d
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th BUY Yes 69¢ $3 124d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 125d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 125d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $30 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $20 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤90d 13 -65.6% -68.8% 23% 23% -26.1%
all 36 -48.0% -52.9% 25% 25% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 25% -42.0%
10% -57.4% 19% -47.6%
15% -61.5% 17% -52.6%
20% -65.3% 14% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.47 (match) · 78 history records