Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e98…1583 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,448 (+23%) realized +$1,456 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,991
other 24% +$657
crypto 5% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +54.3% +39.6% 80% 80% +61.0%
≤30d 10 +54.3% +39.6% 80% 80% +61.0%
≤90d 10 +54.3% +39.6% 80% 80% +61.0%
all 10 +54.3% +39.6% 80% 80% +61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 80% +61.0%
10% +26.2% 80% +45.6%
15% +14.0% 70% +31.5%
20% +2.9% 70% +18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$535 vs −$200 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.7 per $1 lost it wins $10.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,392
Realized+$1,456
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 78¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 57¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $300 $283 −$17 (-6%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 35¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,841 +$2,572 +140%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 +$201 +197%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $762 +$246 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$232 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $597 +$326 +55%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $120 +$126 +105%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$222 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $547 +$354 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $503 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $304 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $1,841 6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $762 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $304 34h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $102 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $120 41h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $204 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $203 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $597 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $547 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,392.16 · official $1,398.68 (match) · 24 history records