Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e95…1776 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,518 (+193%) realized +$6,676 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day125.1pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$6,391
world 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +14.6% +3.7% 9% 9% +254.6%
≤30d 22 +14.6% +3.7% 9% 9% +254.6%
≤90d 22 +14.6% +3.7% 9% 9% +254.6%
all 22 +14.6% +3.7% 9% 9% +254.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 9% +254.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 9% +220.7%
15% -15.3% 9% +189.7%
20% -23.6% 9% +161.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +292% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +292% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +129% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,138 vs −$87 · ×47.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$929
Realized+$6,676
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Open positions16
Markets (closed)22 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day125.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $266 $251 −$15 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $275 $222 −$53 (-19%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $178 $123 −$55 (-31%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $114 $110 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $41 $20 −$21 (-52%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $40 +$230 +576%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 26 $461 +$8,046 +1746%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $15 −$14 -90%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $74 −$72 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? Jun 25 $12 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Netherlands? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $762 −$762 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $67 −$65 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $194 −$191 -99%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 3m
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4m
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 4m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 5m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 7m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 9m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 13m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 14m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 19m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 29m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 29m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 30m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 33m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 34m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $94 34m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 47m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $42 8h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $283 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.24 · official $929.24 (match) · 185 history records