Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e93…353f world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$431 (+3%) realized +$431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%41W / 31L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$333
other 22% +$64
politics 2% +$35
tech 2% −$32
sports 0% −$22
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -53.4% -57.9% 0% 0% -57.9%
≤30d 1 -53.4% -57.9% 0% 0% -57.9%
≤90d 1 -53.4% -57.9% 0% 0% -57.9%
all 72 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 39% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 39% -7.0%
10% -20.2% 28% -15.9%
15% -27.9% 19% -24.0%
20% -35.0% 14% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$77 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1,968
Realized+$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses41 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage230d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $110 −$59 -53%
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $30 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $339 −$319 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $115 +$111 +96%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $48 −$48 -100%
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28? Feb 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $150 −$150 -100%
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 Feb 23 $59 +$32 +54%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28? Feb 23 $82 −$82 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $40 −$40 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $49 +$42 +85%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 18 $287 −$8 -3%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Feb 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Feb 18 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? Feb 17 $500 −$379 -76%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Feb 16 $1,000 +$249 +25%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Feb 05 $867 −$719 -83%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 04 $696 +$211 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 04 $442 +$115 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on Jan Jan 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31? Jan 19 $103 −$20 -19%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $146 +$6 +4%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Raphael Colligno Jan 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Jan 17 $4 +$1 +16%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston Jan 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15? Jan 17 $357 +$58 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Jan 17 $593 +$453 +76%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Jan 17 $817 +$746 +91%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $244 −$74 -30%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? Jan 11 $350 +$43 +12%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? Jan 07 $50 −$4 -8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $205 +$6 +3%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Arthur Cazaux vs Pablo Carreno Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $140 −$34 -24%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Jan 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 01 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jan 01 $73 +$26 +35%
Will Russia enter Borova by December 31? Jan 01 $60 +$44 +74%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 01 $145 +$16 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $1,249 +$15 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Jan 01 $1,415 +$90 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026? Dec 31 $194 −$36 -19%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 31 $385 −$4 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Dec 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? Dec 28 $482 +$20 +4%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Dec 27 $85 −$4 -5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Dec 26 $149 −$15 -10%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 26 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $51 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $33 22h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $12 22h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $65 22h
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $30 113d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $20 113d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 113d
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $48 118d
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28? BUY No 57¢ $57 118d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $150 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $2 118d
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28? BUY No 58¢ $82 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $47 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $5 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $2 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $2 118d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 118d
US issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $2 118d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 121d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $73 121d
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 123d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $191 123d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $88 123d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $189 123d
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 SELL No 73¢ $73 123d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $72 123d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $120 124d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 124d
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 BUY No 50¢ $50 124d
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $49 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,968.42 · official $1,968.42 (match) · 257 history records