Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e8e…9665 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$532 (-9%) realized −$337 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$76
other 37% +$196
weather 20% −$782
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 44% -22.2%
≤30d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 44% -22.2%
≤90d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 44% -22.2%
all 16 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 44% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 44% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 19% -29.6%
15% -32.3% 12% -36.4%
20% -38.9% 6% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$110 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,355
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 94¢ $500 $591 +$91 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? No 77¢ 46¢ $400 $238 −$162 (-40%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $300 $215 −$85 (-28%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 63¢ 50¢ $190 $152 −$38 (-20%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $506 −$72 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $627 −$625 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $703 +$102 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $404 −$171 -42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$221 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $0 33m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $434 34m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $64 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $503 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,194 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $97 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $1 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $122 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 50¢ $37 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $188 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $703 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,355.22 · official $1,441.18 · 60 history records