Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3E 0x3e8d…7879 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+37%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +23.3%
≤30d 3 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +23.3%
≤90d 3 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +23.3%
all 3 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.7% 100% +23.3%
10% +29.0% 67% +11.5%
15% +16.6% 33% +0.7%
20% +5.1% 33% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$42 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$17 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$23 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $71 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $57 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $46 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 89¢ $46 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records