Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e8d…a7ed crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$315
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -37.6% -43.5% 23% 21% -16.2%
≤30d 85 -31.0% -37.6% 34% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 85 -31.0% -37.6% 34% 27% -16.0%
all 85 -31.0% -37.6% 34% 27% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 27% -16.0%
10% -43.6% 18% -24.0%
15% -49.0% 9% -31.3%
20% -54.0% 8% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage17d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $154 −$89 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $425 −$19 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $419 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $207 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $321 −$31 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $216 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $315 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $335 −$35 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $112 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $326 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $274 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $325 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $116 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $122 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $179 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $152 −$30 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $165 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $189 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $167 +$41 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $159 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $145 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $49 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $144 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $115 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $95 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $111 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $108 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $107 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $122 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $110 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records