Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e8a…0f61 crypto 1214 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$624 (-11%) realized −$624 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%577W / 669L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$516
14 days−$453
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -25.7% -32.8% 35% 35% -24.0%
≤30d 1246 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -11.2%
≤90d 1246 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -11.2%
all 1246 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 46% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 46% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 46% -27.4%
20% -35.6% 46% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses577 / 669
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1246 / 1214
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1246 Trades
no open positions (265 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 16 $0 −$1 -217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$15 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records