Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e89…805e world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+8%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$89
crypto 32% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.6% +29.9% 80% 80% -6.3%
≤30d 5 +43.6% +29.9% 80% 80% -6.3%
≤90d 7 +36.5% +23.5% 86% 86% -1.9%
all 13 +45.3% +31.5% 85% 85% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 85% +0.2%
10% +18.9% 69% -9.4%
15% +7.4% 54% -18.1%
20% -3.1% 38% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$150 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage164d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$47 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$11 +203%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $100 +$15 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 07 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$25 +124%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $270 +$132 +49%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 28 $192 −$192 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $130 +$19 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $120 +$73 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $107 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 15¢ $115 74d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 40¢ $123 74d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 76d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 130d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $402 139d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $192 143d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 152d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 156d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $180 156d
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 158d
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 158d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $149 160d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $193 162d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 163d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $120 163d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.62 · official $15.62 (match) · 28 history records