Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3E 0x3e89…89ce sports 23 markets active 15h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,893 (+14%) realized +$17,893 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$5,734per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1,279est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,149
7 days+$1,745
14 days+$3,322
30 days+$16,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$16,613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.8% -1.5% 70% 60% -6.3%
≤30d 23 +11.7% +1.1% 70% 57% +1.9%
≤90d 23 +11.7% +1.1% 70% 57% +1.9%
all 23 +11.7% +1.1% 70% 57% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 57% +1.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 22% -7.9%
15% -17.4% 13% -16.8%
20% -25.5% 9% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$9,922) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,454 vs −$950 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,893
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,279
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5,734
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $12,473 +$3,009 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $935 +$166 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $1,103 −$41 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $178 +$15 +9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $1,393 +$170 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,447 +$349 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2,884 +$330 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $9,922 −$1,738 -18%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2,439 +$423 +17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $15,726 −$938 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $8,508 +$1,261 +15%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $21,051 −$2,968 -14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3,222 +$3,285 +102%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $12,761 +$1,115 +9%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $4,917 +$829 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3,713 +$1,855 +50%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $265 −$260 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $3,429 +$45 +1%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $10,954 +$9,325 +85%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 24 $2,253 +$337 +15%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $2,698 −$473 -18%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $6,177 −$233 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $3,424 +$751 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 88¢ $163 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $27 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $363 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $1,237 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $384 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $1,327 15h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $276 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $512 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $309 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $455 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $807 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $3 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $5 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $1,009 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $3 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $642 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $505 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 76¢ $117 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $980 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $174 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $75 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $669 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 88¢ $1,392 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $1,034 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $6 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $495 33h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $62 33h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $378 34h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 41¢ $226 36h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $236 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records