Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e88…25ed other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%36W / 2L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
tech 14% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 11% +$1
world 9% +$1
politics 4% +$2
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses36 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage560d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $44 $0 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? Mar 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Mar 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Feb 05 $15 $0 +0%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters Feb 05 $194 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31? Jan 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? Nov 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 25 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 08 $89 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31? Sep 01 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Apple launch an Apple Watch on February 19? Feb 22 $7 $0 +0%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 21 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $18 $0 +1%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $83 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $62 75d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 108d
Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 118d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY No 100¢ $76 127d
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? BUY No 100¢ $15 144d
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $39 192d
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? BUY No 100¢ $39 220d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 258d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? BUY No 100¢ $89 268d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 304d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 100¢ $20 338d
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 100¢ $60 392d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? BUY Up 100¢ $35 398d
Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 410d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 430d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $104 442d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 459d
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? BUY No 97¢ $14 463d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 473d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 473d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $21 473d
Will Apple launch an Apple Watch on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 496d
Was Milei hacked? BUY No 100¢ $13 498d
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $15 503d
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? BUY No 100¢ $30 504d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $29 509d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.52 · official $209.52 (match) · 80 history records