Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e87…bef4 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 57L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 14% −$6
other 13% +$19
sports 2% +$46
world 2% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +36.4% +23.4% 33% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 18 +10.6% +0.0% 22% 11% -7.6%
≤90d 62 +10.6% +0.1% 27% 21% -8.2%
all 76 +8.5% -1.9% 25% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 17% -9.3%
10% -11.3% 17% -18.0%
15% -19.8% 17% -25.9%
20% -27.7% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage594d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $6 +$6 +109%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $119 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $125 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $129 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $125 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $395 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 22h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 23h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $6 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $7 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.27 · official $102.27 (match) · 273 history records