Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e87…3198
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$15
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage59d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $23 +$9 +37%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$6
sports 42% +$5
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -31.6% -38.1% 50% 50% +2.0%
≤90d 12 -37.5% -43.4% 42% 33% -14.6%
all 12 -37.5% -43.4% 42% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 33% -14.6%
10% -48.8% 33% -22.8%
15% -53.8% 25% -30.2%
20% -58.3% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.98 · official $14.98 (match) · 27 history records