Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e83…00aa crypto 483 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,790 (-5%) realized −$1,800 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%214W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$831
7 days−$95
14 days−$707
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$2,081
crypto 27% −$1,116
other 2% +$237
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -12.4% -20.8% 44% 41% -10.9%
≤30d 193 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 482 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 41% -16.5%
all 482 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 41% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 41% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 38% -24.5%
15% -30.6% 36% -31.8%
20% -37.4% 31% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$62 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$1,800
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses214 / 268
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions1
Markets (closed)482 / 483
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 45¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $442 +$407 +92%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $105 +$195 +185%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $128 −$108 -84%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $17 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $179 −$179 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $98 −$98 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $133 −$133 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $42 +$38 +92%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $26 +$23 +88%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 +$18 +100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $146 +$182 +124%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $161 −$161 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $129 −$129 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $175 −$169 -96%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $185 −$185 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $245 −$245 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $38 +$27 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $44 +$7 +15%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $28 +$28 +100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $159 +$7 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 +$34 +164%
Solana Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $227 +$297 +131%
XRP Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $517 +$262 +51%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $134 +$177 +132%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $168 +$189 +112%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $7 +$5 +75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $59 +$72 +122%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $171 +$75 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $63 −$30 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $164 +$200 +122%
Iraq vs. Norway: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $848 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $347 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $300 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 35¢ $105 5h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL QT DIG∞ 48¢ $20 8h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 43¢ $128 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $17 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Under 19¢ $2 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $26 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 59¢ $179 30h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 78¢ $98 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 37¢ $123 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $42 37h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 33¢ $10 37h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 38h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $29 38h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $26 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $14 42h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 44h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 44h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 44h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $65 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $51 45h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $24 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $7 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.00 · official $90.00 (match) · 3500 history records