Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e82…4cfb sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,002 (+6%) realized +$978 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%71W / 54L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$159
14 days−$544
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$989
crypto 7% −$104
other 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 48% -11.6%
≤30d 64 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 48% -12.1%
≤90d 125 +7.5% -2.7% 57% 55% -4.4%
all 125 +7.5% -2.7% 57% 55% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 55% -4.4%
10% -12.0% 53% -13.6%
15% -20.5% 50% -21.9%
20% -28.3% 44% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$116 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$978
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses71 / 54
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage36d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Team Falcons 31¢ 50¢ $39 $63 +$24 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$30 +307%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $58 −$49 -83%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $103 −$91 -88%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $159 −$157 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $96 +$62 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$9 +62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $159 −$156 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$59 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $170 +$228 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $149 +$253 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $98 +$76 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$64 +126%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $160 −$158 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $132 +$111 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $86 +$17 +20%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $134 −$111 -83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $14 +$17 +121%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $73 −$60 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$14 +237%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $296 −$291 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $146 +$151 +103%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $238 −$238 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $28 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $61 −$32 -53%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $57 +$10 +17%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 05 $37 +$19 +51%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $58 +$40 +69%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $197 −$195 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $223 +$156 +70%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $152 −$40 -26%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 02 $203 +$222 +109%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 29 $155 +$160 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $12 +$14 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $153 −$36 -23%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 4 Winner May 29 $68 −$67 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $40 1h
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $40 1h
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 24¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL 1WIN 8¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 46¢ $58 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Engla BUY 5¢ $12 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $12 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $76 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 68¢ $159 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $159 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $96 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $0 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $7 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $23 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $14 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 36¢ $153 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $167 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $103 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $159 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $170 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $402 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $149 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $163 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $173 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $139 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $98 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.92 · official $62.92 (match) · 244 history records