Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e7f…3fb8 crypto 17 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+15%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$19
other 33% +$53
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.8% -15.7% 35% 35% -2.1%
≤30d 17 -6.8% -15.7% 35% 35% -2.1%
≤90d 17 -6.8% -15.7% 35% 35% -2.1%
all 17 -6.8% -15.7% 35% 35% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 35% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 35% -11.5%
15% -31.1% 35% -20.0%
20% -37.9% 35% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$48 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $66 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$17 -79%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$60 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$16 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $63 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records