Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e7d…0434
crypto · 105 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$1
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses29 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage127d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 27¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $10 −$5 -47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $9 −$8 -82%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 27 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 11 $1 $0 -10%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +32%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 09 $7 −$4 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? May 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $9 +$10 +111%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 01 $1 $0 -6%
Shymkent 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Andrej Nedic May 01 $1 $0 -10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $140 −$43 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 27? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2 $0 -1%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Grou Apr 21 $13 +$2 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $5 +$12 +237%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 16? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 -8%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 14 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 12 $5 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 10 $15 −$1 -9%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$9
weather 23% −$12
crypto 16% $0
sports 10% −$36
economics 4% $0
world 4% +$3
politics 3% −$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 37m
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 44m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St SELL MIBR 35¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 63¢ $10 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $1 10d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Tundra Esports 10¢ $2 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Tundra Esports 54¢ $9 13d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 46¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 16d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 14 -30.4% -37.1% 14% 14% -51.0%
≤90d 78 -16.5% -24.4% 23% 19% -32.2%
all 104 -12.5% -20.9% 28% 21% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 21% -13.4%
10% -28.4% 15% -21.7%
15% -35.4% 9% -29.2%
20% -41.7% 7% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 393 history records