Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e7c…80c6 sports 71 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$18
sports 47% +$7
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤30d 48 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 48 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 40% -13.8%
all 48 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 40% -13.8%
10% -16.2% 40% -22.1%
15% -24.3% 40% -29.6%
20% -31.7% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)48 / 71
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$20 +954%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +216%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +72%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $5 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $2 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $2 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 34h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $5 34h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 35¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.61 · official $56.59 (match) · 107 history records