Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e79…b2d0 other 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,641 (+3%) realized +$1,599 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%109W / 108L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$981
other 17% +$382
culture 16% +$587
tech 13% −$331
world 11% +$54
finance 1% +$11
sports 0% −$67
economics 0% +$15
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -88.5% -89.6% 0% 0% -81.9%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 61% 22% -7.0%
≤90d 41 +10.2% -0.3% 66% 27% -7.2%
all 217 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 20% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 20% -7.1%
10% -28.7% 12% -16.0%
15% -35.6% 10% -24.1%
20% -41.9% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$4,695
Realized+$1,599
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses109 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)217 / 232
History coverage462d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,240 $2,229 −$11 (-0%)
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,246 $1,250 +$4 (+0%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $724 $746 +$22 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $356 $379 +$23 (+6%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.? No 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026? No 28¢ 62¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+120%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fest Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 26 $166 −$132 -80%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $154 +$66 +43%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,004 +$63 +6%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $243 +$21 +8%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $289 +$11 +4%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $77 +$34 +43%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $826 +$29 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $187 −$7 -4%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +322%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $16 +$4 +24%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 23 $60 −$34 -56%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $70 +$85 +121%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 06 $142 −$59 -41%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 20 May 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? May 04 $8 +$2 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $8 $0 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 03 $81 −$2 -3%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? May 01 $1,092 +$8 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $2,398 +$18 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $146 +$8 +6%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 27 $7 +$3 +36%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 25 $38 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $173 −$31 -18%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 19 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $4 +$6 +163%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $4 +$2 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $5 +$5 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $325 +$107 +33%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $10 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 02 $293 +$7 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $208 −$3 -1%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Mar 29 $1 $0 +13%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -63%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 26 $3 −$3 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? Mar 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 25 $6 +$4 +79%
Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $72 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $353 12h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $98 12h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $96 12h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $64 12h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $125 12h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $8 12h
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 14h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $75 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 14d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $2 16d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $14 16d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $51 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 23d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $4 23d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $18 23d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 26d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 26d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 26d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 26d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? SELL Yes 35¢ $216 31d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 34d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,694.71 · official $4,694.73 (match) · 1341 history records