Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e78…143d
crypto · 1621 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$46 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1442 / 180
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1622 / 1621
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1622 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$39
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -2.8% -12.1% 87% 49% -13.4%
≤30d 475 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 50% -12.2%
≤90d 625 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 40% -12.0%
all 1622 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 19% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 1% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $0.76 · 3500 history records